Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Bahrain
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Israel
  • Qatar
  • United Arab Emirates
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Malaysia
  • Singapore
  • Sri Lanka
  • Lebanon

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $204,952$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,757.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 78.6)}}\) (asimptote \(237,757.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,623$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,603.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,603.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,738$ on 2020-06-21

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,650$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(641 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,859.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41,859.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(19 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(345.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,084$ on 2020-06-21

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $187,685$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,407.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(171,407.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,950$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,698.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,698.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,495$ on 2020-06-21

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,764$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(300 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,607.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.0)}}\) (asimptote \(39,607.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $63$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(0.55 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,282$ on 2020-06-21

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $157,612$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,304.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.7)}}\) (asimptote \(215,304.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,267$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(35.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,215$ on 2020-06-21

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,778$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,588.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(17,588.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $306$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(90.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{291.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(291.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,778$ on 2020-06-21

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,369$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,430.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.2)}}\) (asimptote \(103,430.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,952$ on 2020-06-21

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,925$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,027.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 86.7)}}\) (asimptote \(49,027.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $302$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(39.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(289.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,208$ on 2020-06-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 89%
Singapore recovered 66%
Sri Lanka recovered 53%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Qatar recovered 47%
United Arab Emirates recovered 29%
Lebanon recovered 29%
Tajikistan recovered 26%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,572$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,065.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,065.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(56.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $295$ on 2020-06-21

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,095$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,395.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 101.5)}}\) (asimptote \(41,395.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.84 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,127$ on 2020-06-21

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,950$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,384.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 66.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,384.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.76 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 16.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $441$ on 2020-06-21

Lebanon⮸

Population $6,825,445$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,587$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(233 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,923.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,923.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(10.6 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 26.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $487$ on 2020-06-21